A Defense of Sarah Palin and her recent media created “gaffe.”

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By LIZ SIDOTI
Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) — The presidential race tightened after the final debate, with John McCain gaining among whites and people earning less than $50,000, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that shows McCain and Barack Obama essentially running even among likely voters in the election homestretch.

AP Photo/Jim Cole

The poll, which found Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race narrowed after the third debate as GOP-leaning voters drifted home to their party and McCain’s “Joe the plumber” analogy struck a chord.

Three weeks ago, an AP-GfK survey found that Obama had surged to a seven-point lead over McCain, lifted by voters who thought the Democrat was better suited to lead the nation through its sudden economic crisis.

The contest is still volatile, and the split among voters is apparent less than two weeks before Election Day.

“I trust McCain more, and I do feel that he has more experience in government than Obama. I don’t think Obama has been around long enough,” said Angela Decker, 44, of La Porte, Ind.

But Karen Judd, 58, of Middleton, Wis., said, “Obama certainly has sufficient qualifications.” She said any positive feelings about McCain evaporated with “the outright lying” in TV ads and his choice of running mate Sarah Palin, who “doesn’t have the correct skills.”

The new AP-GfK head-to-head result is a departure from some, but not all, recent national polls.

Obama and McCain were essentially tied among likely voters in the latest George Washington University Battleground Poll, conducted by Republican strategist Ed Goeas and Democratic pollster Celinda Lake. In other surveys focusing on likely voters, a Washington Post-ABC News poll showed Obama up by 9 percentage points, while a poll by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center had Obama leading by 14. A Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, among the broader category of people registered to vote, found Obama ahead by 10 points.

Polls are snapshots of highly fluid campaigns. In this case, there is a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points; that means Obama could be ahead by as many as 8 points or down by as many as 6. There are many reasons why polls differ, including methods of estimating likely voters and the wording of questions.

Charles Franklin, a University of Wisconsin political science professor and polling authority, said variation between polls occurs, in part, because pollsters interview random samples of people.

“If they all agree, somebody would be doing something terribly wrong,” he said of polls. But he also said that surveys generally fall within a few points of each other, adding, “When you get much beyond that, there’s something to explain.”

The AP-GfK survey included interviews with a large sample of adults including 800 deemed likely to vote. Among all 1,101 adults interviewed, the survey showed Obama ahead 47 percent to 37 percent. He was up by five points among registered voters.

A significant number of the interviews were conducted by dialing a randomly selected sample of cell phone numbers, and thus this poll had a chance to reach voters who were excluded from some other polls.

It was taken over five days from Thursday through Monday, starting the night after the candidates’ final debate and ending the day after former Secretary of State Colin Powell broke with the Republican Party to endorse Obama.

McCain’s strong showing is partly attributable to his strong debate performance; Thursday was his best night of the survey. Obama’s best night was Sunday, hours after the Powell announcement, and the full impact of that endorsement may not have been captured in any surveys yet. Future polling could show whether either of those was merely a support “bounce” or something more lasting.

During their final debate, a feisty McCain repeatedly forced Obama to defend his record, comments and associations. He also used the story of a voter whom the Democrat had met in Ohio, “Joe the plumber,” to argue that Obama’s tax plan would be bad for working class voters.

“I think when you spread the wealth around, it’s good for everybody,” Obama told the man with the last name of Wurzelbacher, who had asked Obama whether his plan to increase taxes on those earning more than $250,000 a year would impede his ability to buy the plumbing company where he works.

On Wednesday, McCain’s campaign unveiled a new TV ad that features that Obama quote, and shows different people saying: “I’m Joe the plumber.” A man asks: “Obama wants my sweat to pay for his trillion dollars in new spending?”

Since McCain has seized on that line of argument, he has picked up support among white married people and non-college educated whites, the poll shows, while widening his advantage among white men. Black voters still overwhelmingly support Obama.

The Republican also has improved his rating for handling the economy and the financial crisis. Nearly half of likely voters think their taxes will rise under an Obama administration compared with a third who say McCain would raise their taxes.

Since the last AP-GfK survey in late September, McCain also has:

-Posted big gains among likely voters earning under $50,000 a year; he now trails Obama by just 4 percentage points compared with 26 earlier.

-Surged among rural voters; he has an 18-point advantage, up from 4.

-Doubled his advantage among whites who haven’t finished college and now leads by 20 points. McCain and Obama are running about even among white college graduates, no change from earlier.

-Made modest gains among whites of both genders, now leading by 22 points among white men and by 7 among white women.

-Improved slightly among whites who are married, now with a 24-point lead.

-Narrowed a gap among unmarried whites, though he still trails by 8 points.

McCain has cut into Obama’s advantage on the questions of whom voters trust to handle the economy and the financial crisis. On both, the Democrat now leads by just 6 points, compared with 15 in the previous survey.

Obama still has a larger advantage on other economic measures, with 44 percent saying they think the economy will have improved a year from now if he is elected compared with 34 percent for McCain.

Intensity has increased among McCain’s supporters.

A month ago, Obama had more strong supporters than McCain did. Now, the number of excited supporters is about even.

Eight of 10 Democrats are supporting Obama, while nine in 10 Republicans are backing McCain. Independents are about evenly split.

Some 24 percent of likely voters were deemed still persuadable, meaning they were either undecided or said they might switch candidates. Those up-for-grabs voters came about equally from the three categories: undecideds, McCain supporters and Obama backers.

Said John Ormesher, 67, of Dandridge, Tenn.: “I’ve got respect for them but that’s the extent of it. I don’t have a whole lot of affinity toward either one of them. They’re both part of the same political mess.”

—

AP Director of Surveys Trevor Tompson, AP News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius and AP writer Alan Fram contributed to this report.

This is a rush transcript from “On the Record ,” October 21, 2008. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated.

GRETA VAN SUSTEREN, FOX NEWS HOST: Senator John Kerry makes a nasty, mean-spirited joke about Senator McCain, and it has nothing to do with policy. Now, we’ve all heard politicians asked if they wear boxers or briefs. Well, during a speech, Senator Kerry suggested that Senator McCain would wear Depends. Yes, Depends, the adult diapers. We think this is ironic coming from Senator Kerry, who often complains about the nastiness of politics.

The presidential campaign appears to have caused a rift between war vets Sen. John Kerry and Sen. John McCain.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D), MASSACHUSETTS: There is a Republican attack squad that specializes in trying to destroy people and be negative.

The world will listen to what the Republicans say when they come here, but words, slogans and personal attacks cannot disguise what they have done and left undone. They have obviously decided that some people will believe anything, no matter how fictional or how far-fetched, if they just repeat it often enough.

Our opponents have focused on false reassurances and false attacks.

This is a textbook Republican campaign strategy. I’m sick and tired of a whole bunch of Republican attacks.

The Bush campaign and its allies have turned to the tactics of fear and smear because they can’t talk about jobs, health care, energy independence and rebuilding our alliances.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

VAN SUSTEREN: Joining us live is Jeremy Jacobs, political reporter for Politickerma.com. Welcome, Jeremy.

JEREMY JACOBS, POLITICKERMA.COM: Hi. Thanks for having me.

VAN SUSTEREN: All right, Jeremy, you were at the event. How did the joke — I assume that’s what Senator Kerry is now calling it. How did it go over?

JACOBS: Well, Senator Kerry was at this summit to talk about energy issues, which he did at quite some length. But he started by telling some jokes, and one of which was this joke on boxers or briefs, and McCain would say Depends. The crowd actually ate the joke up. There was a lot of laughter, and it seemed to go over well.

Watch Greta’s interview

VAN SUSTEREN: Anyone say anything afterwards? Anyone think that maybe it was just nasty?

JACOBS: Well, I didn’t notice anyone saying that it was nasty. It’s worth noting that after Kerry made the joke, he did say, Is anyone here voting for Senator McCain? And either no one was or no one had the guts to stand up and say they were. So it was probably a pretty friendly crowd.

VAN SUSTEREN: Why — I mean, it’s a business crowd. You might think that might be a Republican crowd. It was a Democratic crowd?

JACOBS: It was a summit for business executives. I don’t know — I don’t think it had any partisan leanings. But like I said, no one identified as a McCain supporter when Kerry asked them to do.

VAN SUSTEREN: What is Senator Kerry saying today about his statement about Senator McCain?

JACOBS: Well, last night, Senator Kerry debated his challenger this year in his Senate race, and afterwards, he was asked about the remark. And he mentioned that he has used that joke several times, and he even mentioned that Bob Dole at one point used that joke about himself. And so he obviously saw it as a joke and probably nothing more.

VAN SUSTEREN: Well, that shows why he doesn’t get it because he said Bob Dole used the joke about himself. You can make jokes about yourself. But he wasn’t making that joke about himself. He was making that about another person, another colleague in the United States Senate. But let me ask this, is that — Senator Kerry, frankly, is no spring chicken himself. How old is he?

JACOBS: I’m sorry? I didn’t quite get that.

VAN SUSTEREN: I said Senator Kerry is no spring chicken. How old is he?

JACOBS: Senator Kerry is 65, I believe.

VAN SUSTEREN: And so — I mean, I take it that the reference by the joke was a veiled — I mean, was a covert reference to Senator McCain’s age?

JACOBS: Oh, yes. I think it’s pretty safe to say he meant — that what he meant by the joke was that Senator McCain is old.

VAN SUSTEREN: I remember that Senator Kerry made that joke about people who end up — who get C’s in college and end up in Iraq. That one didn’t go over too well, either.

JACOBS: Well, he didn’t make any remarks about that yesterday, and I don’t know about previous remarks like that. But I would imagine that would not go over well, no.

VAN SUSTEREN: Well, Senator Barack Obama (SIC) said that he wanted Senator Obama to say certain things to his face. It would be interesting to see whether Senator Kerry can say this one to Senator McCain’s face. And it’d sort of be interesting to put their two military records next to each other because I don’t think anyone in the U.S. Senate has Senator McCain’s record. But anyway, maybe it’s a funny joke to some. Maybe not. Anyway, Jeremy, thank you very much.

JACOBS: Thank you.

Terror group supporters seek ‘big operation’ against U.S. to ‘push Americans deliberately to vote for McCain’

WASHINGTON — Al Qaeda supporters suggested in a Web site message this week they would welcome a pre-election terror attack on the U.S. as a way to usher in a McCain presidency.

The message, posted Monday on the password-protected al-Hesbah Web site, said if Al Qaeda wants to exhaust the United States militarily and economically, “impetuous” Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain is the better choice because he is more likely to continue the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

“This requires presence of an impetuous American leader such as McCain, who pledged to continue the war till the last American soldier,” the message said. “Then, Al Qaeda will have to support McCain in the coming elections so that he continues the failing march of his predecessor, Bush.”

SITE Intelligence Group, based in Bethesda, Maryland, monitors the Web site and translated the message.

“If Al Qaeda carries out a big operation against American interests,” the message said, “this act will be support of McCain because it will push the Americans deliberately to vote for McCain so that he takes revenge for them against Al Qaeda. Al Qaeda then will succeed in exhausting America till its last year in it.”

Mark Salter, a senior McCain adviser, said he had heard about the Web site chatter but had no immediate comment.

The message is credited to a frequent and apparently respected contributor named Muhammad Haafid. However, Haafid is not believed to have a direct affiliation with Al Qaeda plans or knowledge of its operations, according to SITE.

SITE senior analyst Adam Raisman said this message caught SITE’s attention because there has been little other chatter on the forums about the U.S. election.

SITE was struck by the message’s detailed analysis — and apparent jubilation — about American financial woes.

“What we try to do is get the pulse of the jihadist community,” Raisman said. “And it’s about the financial crisis.”

Al Qaeda leader Usama bin Laden issued a videotape just four days before the 2004 U.S. presidential election directly addressing the American people.

Joe Biden’s claim that Barack Obama would be faced with a ‘generated crisis’ early on seemed to hand the McCain campaign yet another last-minute line of attack.

John McCain campaigns at Robert Morris University in Moon Township, Pa., Tuesday. (AP Photo)

Republican running mates John McCain and Sarah Palin raised new questions about Barack Obama’s readiness to lead Tuesday, taking advantage of Joe Biden’s claims that Obama would face a “generated crisis.”

Biden’s comments seemed to hand the McCain campaign yet another last-minute line of attack as the Arizona senator tries to close the gap between him and his Democratic rival in the final two weeks of the presidential campaign.

“We don’t want a president who invites testing from the world at a time when our economy is in crisis and Americans are already fighting in two wars,” McCain said Tuesday in Harrisburg, Pa.

“Thanks for the warning, Joe,” Palin said to cheers from about 2,500 supporters at the Reno-Sparks Convention Center in Nevada.

Biden made the comments over the weekend to two fundraising audiences in Seattle, saying he expected world figures to test Obama early if he wins the election in two weeks.

“Mark my words. It will not be six months before the world tests Barack Obama like they did John Kennedy. The world is looking,” Biden said. “Watch, we’re gonna have an international crisis, a generated crisis, to test the mettle of this guy.”

The McCain campaign jumped on the remarks, with McCain and Palin bringing them up on the stump Monday evening and Tuesday.

McCain on Tuesday, in response to Biden’s reference to President Kennedy, recalled being ready to launch a bombing run during the October 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

“I was on board the USS Enterprise,” McCain, a former naval aviator, said. “I sat in the cockpit, on the flight deck of the USS Enterprise, off of Cuba. I had a target. My friends, you know how close we came to a nuclear war.”

As the crowd of several thousand began to swell with cheers and applause, he added: “America will not have a president who needs to be tested. I’ve been tested, my friends.”

Democratic aides said that Biden was merely reciting history and assuring supporters that Obama is the man for the job.

But Palin on Tuesday linked Biden’s comments to Obama’s foreign policy positions.

She said the “crisis” scenarios Biden referenced could be triggered by Obama’s willingness to sit down with “the world’s worst dictators,” his willingness to send U.S. military into Pakistan without the approval of their government, or other positions.

“But I guess the looming crisis that most worries the Obama campaign right now is Joe Biden’s next speaking engagement. Let’s call that crisis scenario number five,” she said.

The McCain campaign is trying to build steam off Biden’s remark as it incorporates several other lines of attack into its day-to-day message.

McCain already has gotten significant political mileage out of the man known as Joe the Plumber, who was filmed asking Obama about his tax policies two weekends ago and became the rhetorical centerpiece of the final presidential debate last week. Republicans seized on Obama’s response that he would “spread the wealth around” if elected.

The McCain campaign has gone so far as to liken Obama’s philosophy to “socialism.”

Pennsylvania Democratic Rep. John Murtha also seemed to do Republicans a favor after he called his own constituents “racist” in a newspaper interview. He later apologized and then clarified, saying some of his constituents are just “rednecks.”

As McCain struggles against the odds to lock down support in Obama-leaning Pennsylvania, he cited Murtha’s remarks Tuesday.

“You may have noticed that Senator Obama’s supporters have been saying some pretty nasty things about western Pennsylvania lately,” he said.

McCain fumbled his next line: “And you know I couldn’t agree with them more.” But he continued: “I could not disagree with those critics more. This is a great part of America. This is where people love their country and they serve it.”

And while Obama’s record-shattering $150 million raised in September may seem like very bad news for the McCain campaign, McCain surrogates are trying to turn the report to their advantage, arguing that Obama, who declined to take public financing in the general election, is trying to buy the race.

“Senator Barack Obama has brought change all right. He’s the first person since Watergate to reject public financing, raise $600 million,” South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, a top McCain supporter, said at a rally Tuesday in Bensalem, Pa. “That’s the kind of change that going to ruin America. Don’t reward that guy. Tell him you’re not going to buy Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is not for sale.”

It’s unclear whether McCain can turn any of his campaign’s latest talking points into significant gains at the ballot boxes. The Republican candidate has toyed with a number of messaging strategies throughout the campaign, only to watch Obama’s numbers rise.

The latest Gallup tracking poll Tuesday showed Obama still leading nationally by as much as 10 percentage points among likely voters.

Biden on Tuesday advised Republicans to stop slinging attacks at Obama and concentrate on offering plans to fix the nation’s deteriorating economy.

Biden told a rally in Greeley, Colo., that this election is “all about the economy.”

“If it’s about the economy, talk about the economy, not about Barack Obama’s heritage,” he thundered to a crowd at the University of Northern Colorado.

Biden said McCain has no plan to help the middle class and noted that Obama was meeting with advisers in Florida on Tuesday to discuss immediate steps to shore up the economy.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.