Barack Obama has warned his supporters that Democrats have a knack for snatching defeat from victory, and a couple of conflicting polls out Friday reinforce the message that with 18 days to go, this presidential election may be closer than many think.

Is the race between John McCain and Barack Obama tightening or is Obama holding his lead? Polls provide conflicting answers. (AP)

A Gallup daily tracking poll out Friday shows Obama leading John McCain among registered voters 49-43 percent while an AP-Yahoo poll also released Friday show Obama’s favorability at 57 percent compared to 52 percent for McCain.

The 49 percent in the Gallup poll taken from Monday to Wednesday is the first time since the end of September that Obama has dipped below 50 percent. Obama had been as high as 52 percent earlier this month.

On top of that in the Gallup poll, “traditional voters” — those who are more likely to head to the polls — give Obama 49 percent and McCain 47 percent, well within the 2-point margin of error.

And the AP-Yahoo poll out Friday shows that if the election were held today, 44 percent of adults surveyed would choose Obama while 42 percent would pick McCain, though that poll’s methodology differs from most other polls.

The data showing McCain within two points of Obama shows up on page six of the 29-page poll report. Asked whether The Associated Press buried that result by reporting on the favorability ratings over the head-to-head match-up, Jack Stokes, manager of media relations at The AP, said no.

“The answer is two-fold: this is not primarily a horse race poll, and our story chronicled the dramatic changes in ratings of the candidates. Second, we are focusing on likely voters and our likely voter number shows Obama 5 points ahead of McCain,” Stokes told FOX News.

The AP story accompanying the poll is titled, “Poll: Voters Souring on McCain, Obama Stays Steady.” It focuses on the increase in negative views of McCain — his favorable ratings exceed his unfavorable by just 5 points, down from 21 points last month. Obama’s favorable versus unfavorable ratings have grown from a 5-point to a 15-point margin during that time.

The poll is also difficult to calibrate in accuracy. The survey is a panel study of adults, which means the same people answer questions over the course of time — and as a result they are probably following the race more closely than other voters.

According to the polling data, interviews were conducted online and drawn from an original sample from a panel of respondents recruited by Knowledge Networks via random sampling of telephone land lines with listed and unlisted numbers. Knowledge Networks provided Web access to panelists who didn’t already have it.

This is the eighth wave of polling by The AP and Yahoo with this same group of people, and aren’t as typical as voters randomly dialed in other surveys.

Traditional voters, like likely voters, are the ones who usually show up at the polls. They are determined by whether they say they are voting this year, plus whether they have showed up in past elections. That means traditional voters may represent a more accurate picture of the vote.

However, with voter registration up to record numbers this year, it’s hard to say who will show up at the polls, and whether traditional voters are an accurate barometer of the direction of the vote.

That’s part of the reason why the Obama campaign says it is focused solely on battleground states. According to RealClearPolitics, which aggregates polling data, McCain is trailing by 5 points on average in Florida; he’s down 1 point in North Carolina and back 8 points in Virginia.

“When you look at battleground state by state, Barack Obama already has — if the election were held today — more than 270 electoral votes to win,” said radio talk show host Bill Press. “And again a 10-point lead in Florida like a 13-point lead in Pennsylvania, a 5-point lead in Ohio … these are states that John McCain ought to have in and Barack Obama should not even have a shot at.”

But even battlegrounds are hard to track. For instance, a Florida Research 2000 poll out Friday puts Obama up 4 points over McCain, 49-45 percent. On the same day, a Survey USA poll put McCain 2 points over Obama in Florida 49-47 percent.

The 2-point margin in both national polls is the tightest the race has been in some time and with just 18 days left before Election Day, Nov. 4.

With the polls so close — indeed tightening since McCain lost ground to Obama during debate over the economic bailout bill on Capitol Hill — poll watchers should consider both measures, say political pundits.

“If the national number is really 2 points — I don’t think it is, but if the national number tightens — (battleground) states are going to tighten as well,” said National Review editor Rich Lowry. “So I look at the national numbers as a leading indicator.”

A.B. Stoddard, executive editor at The Hill, said Obama also has to be concerned by the fact that wavering voters in the Democratic primaries broke for Hillary Clinton over him.

“If you’ve resisted Barack Obama for almost two years, you might just get in the car and vote for John McCain. You might just stay home. But John McCain has some voters to get still and that’s why I expect a little bit of tightening,” Stoddard said.

Click here to read The AP-Yahoo survey of adults participating in the Knowledge Networks online surveys.

FOX News’ Dana Blanton and Caroline Shively contributed to this report.

NASHVILLE, Tenn. — Mohamed Nurhussien faced the usual challenges of a low-income worker trying to buy a home, with one big difference: As a Muslim he was forbidden by his religion to pay interest.

The 54-year-old Eritrean immigrant with five children thought his only option was to save enough money to purchase a home outright, with cash earned from his job at a security company.

Then he heard about Habitat for Humanity. For some Muslim immigrants like Nurhussien, the Christian homebuilding charity that offers zero-interest loans has become a real godsend.

“The way Habitat deals fits exactly to our requirements,” said Nurhussien, who bought a home earlier this year from the northern Virginia chapter of the group. “It’s not free. It is no interest. It’s good for me and whoever has the same belief.”

In northern Virginia, a majority of 12 families who bought condominiums at the local Habitat’s latest development, including Nurhussien, are Muslim. In Nashville, local Habitat executive director Chris McCarthy said the city’s large population of Muslim Kurdish immigrants has embraced the nonprofit. Over 10 percent of the group’s mortgage holders are Kurdish.

And Muslim leaders are responding by offering labor to build homes, financial support and more to Habitat. Since 1976, the nonprofit has offered homes based on people’s need, their ability to pay and their willingness to help build the houses and attend classes on topics such as budgeting.

Habitat homes also help fill a void in the U.S., where Islamic loans for strict Muslims are not widely available, said Samuel Hayes, professor emeritus of finance at the Harvard Business School and an expert on Islamic finance.

Intermediaries often buy homes, then sell them to Muslim families with a markup that reflects a reasonable rate of return for the money that sellers have tied up in the property, Hayes said.

“It’s comparable to a mortgage with the interest rate built in,” he said.

The difference may seem minor, but to many Muslims, it is an important distinction because they believe God knows the difference, he said.

Even when Islamic loans are available, not all Muslims consider it a true solution.

“Always people have doubts,” Imam Johari Abdul-Malik said.

“Some say, ‘It just still looks like interest to me,’” he added.

The director of outreach at the Dal Al Hijrah Islamic Center in Falls Church, Va., first realized how many Muslims in his area were buying Habitat homes when a Presbyterian minister friend invited him to a fundraising breakfast for the nonprofit last year.

“So many people in the promotional film that were building homes were Muslim,” Abdul-Malik said. “I said, ‘Wait a minute. Something’s wrong with this picture. Churches are stepping in and building Habitat homes for Muslims. We’re not going to stand by and not help build homes for others.’

“It really put a bee in my kufi.”

So Abdul-Malik began organizing meetings with Habitat representatives in local mosques and community centers. He wants Muslims to do more than just volunteer to build homes. The idea is to increase Muslim presence in Habitat leadership.

He foresees Muslims speaking out to support Habitat when it faces opposition to a new development. He also hopes Muslim contractors will donate in-kind services. And this year he’s bringing a group of his own to the fundraising breakfast.

Local Habitat affiliates throughout the country are independent but work within a common framework. Race and religion are not considered when offering the homes, which sell for an average of $60,000, so no figures are available on how many Muslim families live in the houses. But some affiliates across the country reach out to Muslim groups while others do not.

Habitat of Northern Virginia has built 50 homes in 15 years and has a goal of building the next 50 in five years, said its executive director, Karen Cleveland. She said she is pleased with the growing Muslim involvement in the nonprofit and heartened by the response to the meetings Abdul-Malik organized.

“We had never had any mosques or Muslim community centers sponsor a house before,” she said, but now Abdul-Malik is organizing a coalition to do just that.

Habitat Nashville has built or rehabilitated more than 350 homes since 1985, and this year, the group plans build 42 new and rehabilitate five, said McCarthy. She said she’s proud of the diversity of local Habitat neighborhoods and that little racial or religious tension is apparent among Habitat families. Most Muslim families even happily accept the Bible that U.S. Habitat groups traditionally give to new homeowners along with the keys.

Avdal Wasman fled from Iraq in 1997 as a refugee and bought a Habitat home in Nashville in 2003. He first heard of the group from a friend, but Wasman said his wife told him it was too good to be true.

He was scared to sign a contract because several people had warned him to be cautious about signing any documents in the United States. But today, Wasman is a member of his community’s homeowners association and one of Habitat’s biggest boosters.

Wasman downplays any special value of Habitat to Muslims, saying the nonprofit helps all sorts of people. But he does acknowledge that the no-interest loans are a “good point for Muslim people.”

Nurhussien said in Habitat “you see the spirit of one caring for the other and people working for the benefit of humankind.”

“Regardless of whether the organization started as a Christian, Muslim or Jewish organization, it doesn’t matter.”

Tee shirt proves it!

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Barack Obama condones infanticide. Read more here.

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Sarah Palin is stepping into the lion’s den, so to speak, when she makes her first appearance on Saturday Night Live this weekend.

Tina Fey and Sarah Palin (AP Photo)

Actor Josh Brolin, who plays President Bush in Oliver Stone’s new movie, “W”, will host Saturday’s episode.

John McCain’s campaign confirmed Palin’s appearance to FOX News. But spokeswoman Jill Hazelbaker offered no details about what the Alaska governor will say or do.

The entertainment show’s ratings has surged this season largely thanks to Tina Fey’s wicked and dead-on impersonation of Palin. The hike in ratings has led to the show adding a half-hour program Thursday nights devoted to mocking the candidates.

Last week, Palin said she would love to be on the show with Fey and show her how she is really done.

“I love her,” she said. “She’s hot and she’s so talented and it would be fun to either imitate her or keep on giving her more material and keep her in business.”

Keeping her in business though is not what Fey wants. The comedian told TV Guide that she won’t keep up her much acclaimed role as Palin if she becomes vice president — much to the chagrin of political comedy fans.

“If she wins, I’m done. I can’t do that for four years,” Fey told the magazine. “And by ‘I’m done,’ I mean I’m leaving Earth.”

Fey has mastered Palin’s folksiness while targeting the perception that she is all style and no substance.

McCain called Fey a “tremendous talent” during an appearance Thursday night on CBS’ Late Show with David Letterman and predicted that Palin’s appearance will probably draw a bigger audience than his debate with Barack Obama..

“Tina Fey does a great job,” he said. “Sarah Palin enjoys it. She understands it’s part of what politics is all about.”